25. November 2020 · Comments Off on 第370期 | 申铉松等:贸易信贷、贸易融资和新冠疫情危机 · Categories: 可研究的議題, 國際經濟情勢, 未分類
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MTE0MjQ1Nw==&mid=2650323970&idx=1&sn=abd3a7f53eddd27c646682f6aa2dad7f&chksm=beb61b5489c19242a3221d4fe255f57d7874996838f12b17f8fdb96be693689d87fbbfafd1fd&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=1110oFkZgLoK7kEqAQOu6UMV&sharer_sharetime=1604968500543&sharer_shareid=e23823d28af965bb971fe12a9fbd24fd&exportkey=AkRKFyUWlxs3lvSXYiTwpng%3D&pass_ticket=sEzRPS0n93ictosmSqDnSwH2OB0YBGT2%2BWEVOGdKdZm5iLPX4vAfpkiGA263fhVQ&wx_header=0#rd

原创 Boissay等 实验主义治理 2020-11月10日 Trade credit, trade finance, and the Covid-19 Crisis

Frédéric Boissay, Nikhil Patel and Hyun Song Shin

BIS Bulletin No. 24,2020.6.19  清华大学公共管理学院博士生 陈柳(译)

编者按

本公号第367期(第367期 | 申铉松等:新冠肺炎疫情下的新兴市场经济体汇率和本币债券市场)发表了国际清算银行研究部主任申铉松等人关于新冠肺炎对新兴市场经济国家汇率和本币债券市场的影响的研究, 本期进一步推出他们关于新冠肺炎对贸易信贷和贸易融资的影响的研究。新冠肺炎对传统经济理论和经济政策的挑战,比2008年的全球金融危机有过之而无不及,而各国的应对方式也反映出各国的增长模式及其内在矛盾。在此次美国总统大选中,376个新冠肺炎新增最多的县却有93%是特郎普获胜( https://apnews.com/article/counties-worst-virus-surges-voted-trump-d671a483534024b5486715da6edb6ebf )。 一种解释是这些投特朗普的票的选民就是傻,另一种解释则是美国的增长模式尤其不能承受停工。这后一种解释是布朗大学的政治经济学家Mark Blyth于今年3月在“外交事务”上提出的( https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2020-03-30/us-economy-uniquely-vulnerable-coronavirus )。读者可以和申铉松等人的论文一起参阅。 

11. August 2020 · Comments Off on 瞿宛文演講:台灣經濟發展的源起與當前困境:從李國鼎與台積電說起 · Categories: 台灣經濟/政策評論, 未分類

李國鼎故居紀念李國鼎先生桂冠榮耀系列

敬邀8月15日來聽瞿宛文博士之午茶說書

講題:台灣經濟發展的源起與當前困境:從李國鼎與台積電說起
說書書名:瞿博士著作,包括《台灣的不成功轉型:民主化與經濟發展》、《台灣戰後經濟發展的源起:後進發展的為何與如何》、《全球化下的台灣經濟》、《超越後進發展:台灣的產業升級策略》(與Alice H. Amsden合著)
時間:2020.8.15 (六) 14:00-16:00
視頻連結:
18. March 2020 · Comments Off on Lazonick: Profits Without Prosperity HBR · Categories: 反思經濟學, 國際經濟情勢, 未分類
From the September 2014 Issue, Harvard Business Review

https://hbr.org/2014/09/profits-without-prosperity

(作者有新書:Predatory Value Extraction: How the Looting of the Business Corporation Became the US Norm and How Sustainable Prosperity Can Be Restored, William Lazonick and Jang-Sup Shin, Oxford UP, 2019)

股份回購的作用為何?在2003-2012年間,美國上市公司S&P500中449家公司,用了54%的收益(2.4兆美元)來買回其股份,幾乎全是在市場上購買,其餘37%用來分紅,剩下極少%才用來進行投資! 在2012年,全美500個所得最高的CEO平均每人得到30.3百萬,42%來自stock options, 41% stock awards,亦即股份回購在短期內可以提升股票價格,改善EPS。

戰後至1980年代之前,美國公司對收益採取retain-reinvest做法,促進value creation而非value extraction。1970年代末開始採取降低成本、增加分紅的策略,downsize-and-distribute。0.1%所得分額增至11.3%/2012年。薪資停滯(只有1998-2000增了2%)。

Good buybacks: tender offers, a way for executives to have large share and care about the company’s future. (maybe 5% of buybacks)

Bad ones: to manage stock prices. The SEC instituted Rule 10b-18 of the Securities Exchange Act, to allow repurchase of shares with few restrictions (25%), and without fear of price-manipulation charges. CEOs are serving their own interests.

A related issue is the notion that the CEO’s obligation is to maximize shareholder value “MSV”. (Michael Jensen) The MSV school ignores other participants, like the taxpayers and workers, who bear risk. Thus, MSV is a theory of value extraction, not value creation.

Reform the system; put an end to open-market buybacks; rein in stock-backed pay; transform the boards.

3 examples of hypocrisy: 1) Exxon Mobile, received $600 million a year in government subsidies for oil exploration, spends about $21 billion a year on buybacks, and no money on alternative energy research. 2) After Intel’s lobbying, the government launched the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) in 2001, through 2013 Intel’s buyback amount was 4 times the NNI budget. 3) Pfizer argues that drug prices are high because they need high prices to support research. But from 2003-2012, Pfizer funneled an amount equal to 71% of its profits into buybacks.

24. February 2020 · Comments Off on From Simon Wren-Lewis’ Blog: The left needs to campaign for social liberalism · Categories: 未分類

Mainly Macro: Comment on macroeconomic issues

Tuesday, 18 February 2020

The left needs to campaign for social liberalism

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-left-needs-to-campaign-for-social.html?m=1&from=timeline&isappinstalled=0

This evidence suggests two important but provocative conclusions, which for me represent tentative hypotheses rather than anything firm. First, the key division in UK society today as far as elections are concerned is the social liberal/conservative divide, rather than ABCD class divisions or how left wing economic policy is.[2] Brexit was not an aberration but part of a trend. The big divide in the UK is partly age but mainly education. [3] The political right understands this, which is why elections will be fought on proxies for this divide. …

Second, social conservatism is not immutable.

09. January 2020 · Comments Off on NYT: The Tragedy of Germany’s Energy Experiment · Categories: 其他, 台灣經濟/政策評論, 國際經濟情勢, 未分類

The country is moving beyond nuclear power. But at what cost?

Jochen Bittner,Jan. 8, 2020
 Are the Germans irrational? Steven Pinker seems to think so. Professor Pinker, a Harvard psychologist, told the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel recently that if mankind wanted to stop climate change without stopping economic growth too, the world needed more nuclear energy, not less. Germany’s decision to step out of nuclear, he agreed, was “paranoid.”