25. February 2021 · Comments Off on IMF WP: What Drives Innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D · Categories: 國際經濟情勢

Author/Editor: Ruchir Agarwal ; Patrick Gaule, Publication Date:February 19, 2021
Summary:To examine the drivers of innovation, this paper studies the global R&D effort to fight the deadliest diseases and presents four results. We find: (1) global pharmaceutical R&D activity—measured by clinical trials—typically follows the ‘law of diminishing effort’: i.e. the elasticity of R&D effort with respect to market size is about ½ in the cross-section of diseases; (2) the RD response to COVID-19 has been a major exception to this law, with the number of COVID-19 trials being 7 to 20 times greater than that implied by its market size; (3) the aggregate short-term elasticity of science and innovation can be very large, as demonstrated by aggregate flow of clinical trials increasing by 38% in 2020, with limited crowding out of trials for non-COVID diseases; and (4) public institutions and government-led incentives were a key driver of the COVID-19 R&D effort—with public research institutions accounting for 70 percent of all COVID-19 clinical trials globally and being 10 percentage points more likely to conduct a COVID-19 trial relative to private firms. Overall, while economists are naturally in favor of market size as a driving force for innovation (i.e.“if the market size is sufficiently large then innovation will happen”), our work suggests that scaling up global innovation may require a broader perspective on the drivers of innovation—including early-stage incentives, non-monetary incentives, and public institutions.
Series:Working Paper No. 2021/048

25. February 2021 · Comments Off on 王贻芳:“我国科学界内部认真的科学讨论很少” · Categories: 中國經改模式, 其他

原创 倪思洁 科学网 2021/2/24

23. February 2021 · Comments Off on Scientific American: Experts Answer the Biggest COVID Vaccine Questions · Categories: 其他

What does “95 percent effective” mean? Should you get vaccinated if you have had COVID? Is there a best vaccine?
By Jim Daley on February 19, 2021

22. February 2021 · Comments Off on Larry Summers: 2013 IMF talk · Categories: 反思經濟學, 國際經濟情勢

IMF Fourteenth Annual Research Conference

“So, my lesson from this crisis, and my overarching lesson, which I have to say I think the world has under-internalized, is that it is not over until it is over, and that time is surely not right now, and cannot be judged relative to the extent of financial panic. And that we may well need, in the years ahead, to think about how we manage an economy in which the zero nominal interest rate is a chronic and systemic inhibitor of economic activity holding our economies back below their potential.”

22. February 2021 · Comments Off on 韦森:全球低通胀低利率低增长的真实原因——源于货币“革命”的视角 · Categories: 中國經改─金融, 反思經濟學

固收论道 2021/2/21
以下文章来源于珠海市横琴新区智慧金融研究院 ,作者韦森