2020-07-31 · · Categories: 反思經濟學

原创 南默 Faye 加拿大和美国必读 2020/7/30

2020年的黑天鹅实在是太多了。一周前,一位天才经济学家的辞世,似乎又为这一年,平添了悲哀的色彩。而在过去短短一年多时间内,4位顶尖经济学家的辞世,更是叫人慨叹,经济学领域到底发生了什么?作为人类最为理性的一个群体,他们为何会选择以自杀来结束自己的生命?也许有些谜团,我们永远无法知晓了。而这个世界,到底是怎么了?经济就糟到这份上了吗?
2020-07-31 · · Categories: 國際經濟情勢

财经外研社 2020-07-30 21:59:11

It Is Time to Abandon Dollar Hegemony Issuing the World’s Reserve Currency Comes at Too High a Price

By Simon Tilford and Hans Kundnani July 28, 2020

从2008年金融危机到今年的新冠疫情危机,美元在全球货币体系中的主导地位非但没有减弱,反而愈加明显。然而,颇具争议的美元霸权不仅加剧了全球经济失衡,也令美国自身苦不堪言。德国新经济学论坛经济学家西蒙·蒂尔福德(Simon Tilford)和英国皇家国际问题研究所高级研究员汉斯·孔德纳尼(Hans Kundnani近日在美国外交事务网站刊文指出,是时候做出改变了。全文如下:
2020-07-29 · · Categories: 國際經濟情勢

Members of Congress will be able to grill tech C.E.O.s at a hearing. Let’s hope they don’t waste the opportunity.

July 28, 2020, By The Editorial Board, New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/opinion/tech-ceo-hearing-congress.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

The challenge for the subcommittee will be in establishing whether these tech companies — which have amassed immeasurable power — operate as illegal monopolies in certain domains, such as online search (Google), online marketplaces (Amazon), mobile phone app stores (Apple), the dissemination of information (Facebook), advertising sales (Google and Facebook) and mergers and acquisitions.

CSIS Briefs, Scott Kennedy

July 27, 2020

https://www.csis.org/analysis/washingtons-china-policy-has-lost-its-wei

The Issue

The U.S. federal government is obsessed with the Chinese telecom giant Huawei. It has adopted a multipronged strategy to crush the company and decouple the Western world from China’s telecom and semiconductor industries. Although well-intentioned, this effort could seriously harm the United States’ economy and national security. The U.S. semiconductor industry, which is the bedrock of the U.S. economy, has thrived like never before in a globalized industry. The campaign to isolate Huawei and the greater technology decoupling enterprise threatens this historic success and accelerates China’s technological independence. Decoupling would also harm the United States’ military preparedness and reduce the costs of Chinese aggression, most importantly, with respect to Taiwan. The United States needs a different strategy, what I call “principled interdependence,” to address the risks posed by Huawei and China’s high-tech drive while also continuing to benefit from being part of a dynamic global economy. This approach does not require the United States to trust Huawei or China, but it does depend on the United States having greater confidence in itself and to more effectively work with friends and allies.

China’s chip industry is still several generations behind, but it is more likely to advance when deprived of external supplies. Rather than crushing China’s high-tech designs, U.S. actions are fueling them.

The consequence will be slower global sales and a gradual loss of dominance for the U.S. chip industry. According to the Boston Consulting Group, a full decoupling with China would reduce the sector’s revenue by 37 percent and lower its global market share to 30 percent; by contrast, China’s market share would rise from 3 percent to 31 percent. And a weakened U.S. chip industry cannot but hurt the rest of the country’s related sectors, including flagship companies and smaller suppliers as well as their employees.