{"id":2486,"date":"2017-01-04T15:04:28","date_gmt":"2017-01-04T07:04:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/?p=2486"},"modified":"2017-01-04T15:05:35","modified_gmt":"2017-01-04T07:05:35","slug":"%e5%9f%ba%e6%9c%ac%e6%97%a0%e7%94%a8%e7%9a%84%e8%ae%a1%e9%87%8f%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/?p=2486","title":{"rendered":"\u57fa\u672c\u65e0\u7528\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2016\/12\/12\u00a0 \u77e5\u4e4e\u5c08\u6b04<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/24119744?from=timeline&#038;isappinstalled=0<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\u8fd1\u671f\uff0c\u8457\u540d\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 John Rust \u53d1\u8868\u4e86 <a href=\"https:\/\/link.zhihu.com\/?target=http%3A\/\/www.nowpublishers.com\/article\/Details\/ACC-049\" rel=\"nofollow noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Mostly Useless Econometrics? Assessing the Causal Effect of Econometric Theory<em><\/em><\/a> \u4e00\u6587\u3002\u5728\u6587\u4e2d\uff0cRust \u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6570\u5b66\u5316\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6279\u5224\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u5f00\u5934\u5f15\u7528\u4e86 John von Neumann \u5728 1947 \u5e74\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u77ed\u6587 <em>The Mathematician<\/em> \u4e2d\u7684\u6bb5\u843d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a von Neumann \u5bf9\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e9b\u6570\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u56e0\u4e3a\u8131\u79bb\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u6e90\u800c\u9677\u5165\u5371\u673a\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cvon Neumann \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u201c\u628a\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u601d\u60f3\u91cd\u65b0\u6ce8\u5165\u201d\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e00\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u4e4b\u9009\u3002Rust \u7ed3\u5408\u81ea\u5df1\u4e09\u5341\u4f59\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u6559\u5b66\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u592a\u591a\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u6beb\u65e0\u7528\u5904\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u7ae0\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u771f\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u7ed3\u6784\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0cRust \u5374\u5bf9 Joshua Angrist \u548c J\u00f6rn-Steffen Pischke \u6240\u8457\u7684 <em>Mostly Harmless Econometrics<\/em> \uff08\u300a\u57fa\u672c\u65e0\u5bb3\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u683c\u5916\u6b23\u8d4f\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u540d\u5b57\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a <em>Mostly Useful Econometrics<\/em> (\u300a\u57fa\u672c\u6709\u7528\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b)\u3002Rust \u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8be5\u4e66\u7684\u7545\u9500\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u76f8\u5bf9\u5bb9\u6613\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b9\u6cd5\u80cc\u540e\u90a3\u4e9b\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u5177\u7bb1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u4e4b\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u671f\u520a\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\u90a3\u4e9b\u82b1\u8d39\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7b14\u58a8\u8bba\u8bc1\uff0c\u5374\u51e0\u4e4e\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u53bb\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u9876\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u671f\u520a <em>Econometrica<\/em> \u4e0a\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u975e\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u603b\u7ed3\u548c\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u5c06\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u6539\u4e00\u6539\u6216\u662f\u7528\u66f4\u5f31\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u53bb\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc1\u660e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2016\/12\/12\u00a0 \u77e5\u4e4e\u5c08\u6b04 https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/24119744?from=timeline&#038;isappinstalled=0 \u8fd1\u671f\uff0c\u8457\u540d\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 John Rust \u53d1\u8868\u4e86 Mostly Useless Econometrics? Assessing the Causal Effect of Econometric Theory \u4e00\u6587\u3002\u5728\u6587\u4e2d\uff0cRust \u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6570\u5b66\u5316\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6279\u5224\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u5f00\u5934\u5f15\u7528\u4e86 John von Neumann \u5728 1947 \u5e74\u65f6\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u77ed\u6587 The Mathematician \u4e2d\u7684\u6bb5\u843d\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a von Neumann \u5bf9\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e9b\u6570\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u56e0\u4e3a\u8131\u79bb\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u6e90\u800c\u9677\u5165\u5371\u673a\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cvon Neumann \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u201c\u628a\u76f4\u63a5\u6216\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u601d\u60f3\u91cd\u65b0\u6ce8\u5165\u201d\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e00\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u4e4b\u9009\u3002Rust \u7ed3\u5408\u81ea\u5df1\u4e09\u5341\u4f59\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u6559\u5b66\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u592a\u591a\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8bba\u6587\u6beb\u65e0\u7528\u5904\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6587\u7ae0\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u771f\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u2026 \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u7ed3\u6784\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0cRust \u5374\u5bf9 Joshua Angrist \u548c J\u00f6rn-Steffen Pischke \u6240\u8457\u7684 Mostly Harmless Econometrics \uff08\u300a\u57fa\u672c\u65e0\u5bb3\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u683c\u5916\u6b23\u8d4f\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u540d\u5b57\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a Mostly Useful Econometrics (\u300a\u57fa\u672c\u6709\u7528\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b)\u3002Rust \u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8be5\u4e66\u7684\u7545\u9500\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u76f8\u5bf9\u5bb9\u6613\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b9\u6cd5\u80cc\u540e\u90a3\u4e9b\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u5177\u7bb1\u3002 \u4e0e\u4e4b\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u671f\u520a\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e2d\u90a3\u4e9b\u82b1\u8d39\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7b14\u58a8\u8bba\u8bc1\uff0c\u5374\u51e0\u4e4e\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u53bb\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u9876\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u671f\u520a Econometrica \u4e0a\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u975e\u662f\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u603b\u7ed3\u548c\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u5c06\u8bef\u5dee\u9879\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u6539\u4e00\u6539\u6216\u662f\u7528\u66f4\u5f31\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u53bb\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc1\u660e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002 &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-reflections"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2486"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2486\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2488,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2486\/revisions\/2488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rchss.sinica.edu.tw\/wwchu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}